Stanford Strategic Decision and Risk Management

Sample Course Syllabus
Behavioral Challenges in Decision-Making

Course Description

Courses at Stanford provide participants the opportunity to interact with Stanford faculty and SDG instructors.

Introduction: The Psychology of Effective Decision-Making

Our individual and collective biases routinely affect the quality of decisions. We explore five areas that challenge effective decision-making: biases in perception, fallacies in reasoning, motivational biases, personality differences, and group dynamics. Drawing on individual and group experience with these challenges, you will learn where the traps can often occur and how to recognize, anticipate, and avoid them.

Biases in Perception

The way we gather and interpret information can distort our ability to make choices. We will show how irrelevant frames and anchors can reverse choices, how a sum of money can seem large or small, how easy it is to attend to the most recent information or sunk costs, and how hard it is to recognize missing information or remember opportunity costs. You will gain familiarity with several of the most common biases in perception and discuss approaches to avoid them.

Fallacies in Reasoning

Solid logical reasoning is imperative for effective decision-making. Yet our brains are not wired for tackling problems that are complicated by complex structure, compound uncertainties, or large numbers of options. You can improve your reasoning through an awareness of the challenges and a working knowledge of techniques and tools that reduce complexity and add clarity to problem solving.

Motivational Biases

The desire to look good to ourselves and to others often distorts our perceptions and beliefs. Common motivational biases include overconfidence, undue optimism, and the sense that, in hindsight, we really "knew it all along". Whether influenced by an illusion of control, a desire to stick with the status quo, or simply wishful thinking, we tend to make choices that are far from ideal. To reduce the impact of these biases, we show what actions can be taken to minimize their effects and even prevent them from occurring.

Personality Differences

Each of us has a set of traits, habits, and natural tendencies that shape our approach to decision-making. Using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) dimensions, a decision style inventory, and standard measures of risk attitudes, we will illustrate the effects of personality-based distortions. Most people prefer to operate within their comfort zone - defined by their personalities and expertise - regardless of whether that approach is best. The awareness of these effects provides us with a basis of avoiding the mistakes. We also show that self-knowledge and knowledge of team members' personalities can be an effective tool for leading decision teams.

Group Dynamics

When a group is engaged in decision-making, a new set of biases can come into play: groupthink, anonymity, obedience, and conformity. Groups also tend to overlook information that is not shared or forget to consider the information that is missing. You will learn about these issues through firsthand experience and develop insights into how to benefit from a group's diversity without becoming a victim of its possible negative impacts.

Synthesis

In this course, you will explore and experience a variety of strengths and weaknesses in individual and group decision-making. This awareness and understanding will prepare you to know what problems are likely to occur. We will conclude with an integrative framework that will help you examine the decision-making processes currently being used in your organization and in your life.

Course Description